GLOBAL OUTLOOK: Green lentils
When we start looking within the food complex, and compare oil seeds, grains and pulses, one of the interesting things that we can see in recent years is that pulses have lagged the advances that a visible in oil seeds and grains. And that would imply the increase in land for soybeans, rapeseeds, wheat, corn at the expense of pulses.
There is an interesting movement that we see in values of oilseeds and pulses. It makes impact on farmers who switch to oilseeds which can lead us to unusually tight supply situation for green lentils.
In the US farmers are going to harvest 9% less lentils because farmers decided to switch to oilseeds and weather condition in main growing regions made its impact. The green lentil level for Canada looks very similar. Canadian producers are expected to produce 488 000 tons of Canadian large green lentils this year, a 19% drop from 2020-21.
If yields across the world return to average levels than production will be down from last year. Due to nasty weather conditions in Canada and the US it is projected that green lentil production in 2021 will decrease by 7%. Whereas global supply in forecasted to be around 1 570 000 tons which is 13% less than in 2020.
But the other important part of this is that globally we're probably going to end the current marketing year with very low ending stocks globally. Producers are advised to expect prices to rise as experts project world carry in stocks to plunge by 41%.
This is where we get into a lot of controversy as global consumption looks strong and projected to keep its trend. And the result means that we're looking at a big decline in available supplies of green levels globally for the upcoming marketing year.
Considering all the factors, buyers around the world need to load their warehouses because of the possible upcoming shortage in supplies and price incensement all over the world.