GLOBAL OUTLOOK: KABULI CHICKPEAS
Pulses 2.1 became the largest virtual event of the Global Pulse Industry. The conference was held online and gathered all industry’s leading speakers from around the globe. The panelists discussed main issues and perspectives of entire market. Our colleagues were present as well and here are some points that are worth sharing.
Let’s begin with Russia, that is the world’s leading exporter of the crop. Total supplies are forecasted at 284 000 tons, which is 4% less than in previous year. Exports are expected to fall by 17 % to 170 000 tons compared to 205 000 tons in 2020-21.
Mexico is the second biggest exporter, usually offers large caliber chickpeas to markets around the world. Total supplies are forecasted at 165 000 tons and exports are expected to fall by 20% due to high prices which can rise by 12% up to $1,600 per ton.
India’s supply is expected to plunge by 32% to 396 000 tons due to low carry-in stocks and poor production prospects for all of India’s winter season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50 000 tons, compared to 115 000 tons in previous year. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50 000 tons from Canada, Argentina and Turkey whereas last year India imported 4 000 tons which is more than 12 times less.
Argentina’s supplies are expected to climb to 78 000 tons, carry-in stocks are projected to be around 2 600 tons which is 28% less than in previous year. However, it is worth mentioning that Argentina hasn’t had high volumes of carry-in stocks during the last couple of years. Exports is projected to fall by 20%.
Turkey’s supplies are expected to fall by 36 %, whereas exports will face a 20 % decline. Analytics believe that either exports would have to fall even further or the Turkish government will have to reduce its import duty and bring in more chickpeas. Turkey’s production is projected to be 190 000 tons, however due to the dry conditions in eastern Turkey it is more likely that the production will be around 150 000 tons.
Supplies in the USA can face a 16% decline. Production and exports are projected to rise by 7% and 6% respectively. However, carry-in stocks will plunge by over 40%.
Canada’s supplies will plummet by 22% to 386 000 tons. Canadian market will experience an increase in exports to 200,000 tons, which is a 40% hike over 2020-21 levels. That is because Canadian farmers have been holding stocks due to low prices and are finally willing to sell.
The US and Canada are expected to be major suppliers to Pakistan in the coming months. Pakistan is the world’s biggest buyer of kabuli chickpeas. It imported 383 000 tons of the crop in 2020.