GLOBAL OUTLOOK: White Navy Beans
Generally speaking, there are 3 major growing regions: USA, Canada and Ethiopia. We can also add Ukraine to this list.
Total global supply is projected to be around 400 000 tons annually, total export – 300 000 tons. The UK and Italy are major importers (200 000 tons) mainly from US/Canada.
Global production is expected to plunge by 17% in 2021. But if we compare 2021 to 5-year average indicators we can see only 2% decline. According to forecasts, Canada will produce 25% less beans, the US will face a 20% decrease, Ethiopia will decline its production by 8%.
In general, the US tariff into Europe is 25%, which continues to drive demand for Canadian beans in the EU. At the same time the UK announced plans to remove US tariff on dry beans.
Weather conditions in the US and Canada are not favorable and the whole “Northern plain” suffers from severe drought. That can make a substantial impact on the future harvest.
Considering all the factors, even though Covid demand seems to be subsiding to historical levels we do not expect significant reduction of the price levels this year.