Global Outlook: Chickpeas
Next available to all webinar that was organized by GPC was dedicated to chickpeas or Garbanzo beans. Same thing, we listened attentively to the invited speakers and here we present in short bulletin style what was discussed during an hour and a half.
India: Production is going down in 2019. New crop is already harvested, there are no clear numbers of total volume as of yet. The new 2020 crop is good in quality. Exports dropped in comparison to 2020. Ending stock for 18/19 season was over 200 thousand tons and in 19/20 – around 160 thousand. Pulses duty imposed a few years ago is not expected to be reviewed and most likely to stay in place throughout 2020.
Mexico: Production reduced by 50% from last year, however total exports should remain at the same level, because of 2018 yield. A lot of farmers switched to corn cultivation due to special government program. Carry-over – 80 000 tons (January 2020). Anticipating for the prices to go up in three months and settle within 1400-1600 USD range.
Canada: 40% reduced production. Big carry-in: 150 000 tons. Poor exports in 2019. Total exports for 2020 will be affected slightly.
Turkey: Production is down by 10% in 2020. Carry-over – 100 000 tons. Will keep exports as the main priority with most of the quantities going to Pakistan and Middle East countries. No changes in duty policy, 20% will be still obligatory for any chickpea imports. 8 mm chickpeas are expected to be sold for 540-580 USD.
Russia: Also 10% decline in production. Record high exports in 19/20 will help to go down on carry-over. Exports expected to return to average. Low prices for now, no recovery yet. Expected to go up in 3 months.
Ukraine: the only country that reportedly should increase its chickpea production by 45-50% with the expected yields to reach 65 000 tons. This is explained by poor moisture level in the soil and farmers switching to products that can survive harsh dry conditions. According to our observations and numerous communications with the farmers, this insight is overly optimistic. Plantation areas increased in 2020 but not so much. Wheat prices went up and that was an easy choice for the farmers to go along with trusted and well-established commodity in Ukraine. Meanwhile farmers are getting more educated and we are expecting to see big-size chickpeas getting popular.
To sum up all the aforementioned: less production in 2020 (2018 – 3,32 million tons; 2019 – 2,37 and 2020 – 1,76), coronavirus crisis increased demand, carry-over will be reduced and prices should start going up by the end of the year and stabilize for 20/21 season.